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0z\"\u002F>",true,{"id":46,"title":47,"author":48,"body":49,"cefrLevel":848,"date":48,"description":849,"exercises":48,"extension":850,"faqs":851,"gcseTier":861,"intro":862,"language":863,"lastUpdated":48,"meta":864,"navigation":44,"path":865,"seo":866,"stem":867,"verbSlugs":48,"__hash__":868},"pages\u002Fspanish\u002Fgrammar\u002Ffuture-conditional-probability.md","The Future and Conditional of Probability in Spanish (¿Qué hora será?, Serían las tres)",null,{"type":50,"value":51,"toc":831},"minimark",[52,57,74,104,119,124,127,183,202,206,215,253,264,268,278,316,335,342,346,361,366,381,407,425,429,441,461,484,488,491,573,576,580,590,624,660,664,708,712,725,743,756,773,783,800,804],[53,54,56],"h1",{"id":55},"the-future-and-conditional-of-probability-in-spanish","The Future and Conditional of Probability in Spanish",[58,59,60,61,65,66,69,70,73],"p",{},"Here is a sentence that trips up every English speaker at first sight: ",[62,63,64],"strong",{},"¿Qué hora será?"," Read it as a future tense and you get \"what time will it be?\", which is nonsense out of context - the time is not going anywhere. Read it the way a Spanish speaker means it and it is ",[62,67,68],{},"I wonder what time it is",". The future tense here is not telling the time; it is ",[62,71,72],{},"guessing"," at it.",[58,75,76,77,82,83,87,88,91,92,95,96,99,100,103],{},"This is one of the great quiet workhorses of Spanish. The ",[78,79,81],"a",{"href":80},"\u002Fspanish\u002Fgrammar\u002Ffuture-tense","future"," and the ",[78,84,86],{"href":85},"\u002Fspanish\u002Fgrammar\u002Fconditional","conditional"," both moonlight as tenses of ",[62,89,90],{},"supposition",": the future guesses about the ",[62,93,94],{},"present",", the conditional guesses about the ",[62,97,98],{},"past",". Where English scatters little words - ",[62,101,102],{},"must, probably, I bet, I wonder, will be"," - in front of an ordinary verb, Spanish bends the whole tense to the job. Once you see it, you cannot unsee it, and your spoken Spanish jumps a level.",[58,105,106,107,110,111,114,115,118],{},"Note the frame before we start: this page is ",[62,108,109],{},"not"," about the future and conditional as tenses of time. It is about the same forms doing a completely different job. ",[62,112,113],{},"Será"," the time-teller and ",[62,116,117],{},"será"," the guess are spelled identically; only context, and often a question mark, tells them apart.",[120,121,123],"h2",{"id":122},"the-core-idea-future-guesses-the-present-conditional-guesses-the-past","The core idea: future guesses the present, conditional guesses the past",[58,125,126],{},"Line the two up and the system is almost insultingly simple.",[128,129,130,149],"table",{},[131,132,133],"thead",{},[134,135,136,140,143,146],"tr",{},[137,138,139],"th",{},"Guess about",[137,141,142],{},"Tense used",[137,144,145],{},"Example",[137,147,148],{},"Meaning",[150,151,152,168],"tbody",{},[134,153,154,158,160,165],{},[155,156,157],"td",{},"the present",[155,159,81],{},[155,161,162],{},[62,163,164],{},"Estará en casa.",[155,166,167],{},"He is probably at home.",[134,169,170,173,175,180],{},[155,171,172],{},"the past",[155,174,86],{},[155,176,177],{},[62,178,179],{},"Estaría en casa.",[155,181,182],{},"He was probably at home.",[58,184,185,186,189,190,193,194,197,198,201],{},"The ordinary relationship between the two tenses carries straight over: the future points at ",[62,187,188],{},"now",", the conditional points at ",[62,191,192],{},"then",". All that changes is that instead of stating a fact about that time, you are ",[62,195,196],{},"hazarding a guess"," about it. Keep that pairing in your head - ",[62,199,200],{},"future = present guess, conditional = past guess"," - and everything below is just examples.",[120,203,205],{"id":204},"the-future-of-probability-guessing-about-the-present","The future of probability: guessing about the present",[58,207,208,209,211,212,214],{},"Take an action happening ",[62,210,188],{}," that you are not sure about, and put its verb in the ",[62,213,81],{},". The tense itself now means \"probably\" or \"must be\".",[216,217,218,224,230,235,241,247],"ul",{},[219,220,221,223],"li",{},[62,222,64],{}," (I wonder what time it is. \u002F What time can it be?) - not \"will it be\".",[219,225,226,229],{},[62,227,228],{},"Serán las tres."," (It is probably three o'clock. \u002F It must be three.)",[219,231,232,234],{},[62,233,164],{}," (He is probably at home. \u002F He must be at home.)",[219,236,237,240],{},[62,238,239],{},"Tendrá unos treinta años."," (He must be about thirty.)",[219,242,243,246],{},[62,244,245],{},"¿Quién será a estas horas?"," (Who on earth can that be at this hour?) - the doorbell rings.",[219,248,249,252],{},[62,250,251],{},"Estarán cenando."," (They are probably having dinner right now.) - future of the present continuous.",[58,254,255,256,259,260,263],{},"Every one of these is about the present moment. Nobody is talking about the future at all. The English translations reach for ",[62,257,258],{},"must, probably, I wonder, can it be"," - the future tense in Spanish rolls all of those into the conjugation. The question forms (",[62,261,262],{},"¿qué hora será?, ¿quién será?",") are especially common: they are how Spanish muses aloud, the spoken equivalent of a raised eyebrow.",[120,265,267],{"id":266},"the-conditional-of-probability-guessing-about-the-past","The conditional of probability: guessing about the past",[58,269,270,271,274,275,277],{},"Now shift the guess back in time. An action that was going on ",[62,272,273],{},"in the past",", guessed at rather than known, takes the ",[62,276,86],{},".",[216,279,280,286,292,298,304,310],{},[219,281,282,285],{},[62,283,284],{},"Serían las tres cuando llegó."," (It must have been about three when he arrived.)",[219,287,288,291],{},[62,289,290],{},"¿Qué hora sería?"," (I wonder what time it was.)",[219,293,294,297],{},[62,295,296],{},"Estaría cansado."," (He was probably tired.)",[219,299,300,303],{},[62,301,302],{},"Tendría unos treinta años entonces."," (He must have been about thirty then.)",[219,305,306,309],{},[62,307,308],{},"Habría unas cien personas en la sala."," (There were probably about a hundred people in the room.)",[219,311,312,315],{},[62,313,314],{},"No contestó; estaría durmiendo."," (He did not answer; he was probably asleep.)",[58,317,318,319,322,323,326,327,330,331,334],{},"Set ",[62,320,321],{},"serían las tres"," against ",[62,324,325],{},"serán las tres"," and the whole system snaps into focus. ",[62,328,329],{},"Serán"," guesses at the present - it is probably three now. ",[62,332,333],{},"Serían"," guesses at the past - it was probably about three then. Same verb, one letter of difference in the ending, and the guess slides from now to then. This is exactly why learning the pairing beats learning the two uses separately.",[58,336,337,338,341],{},"The conditional of probability loves an approximate number. ",[62,339,340],{},"Serían las tres, habría unas cien personas, costaría unos veinte euros"," - the tense is doing the work of \"about\", \"roughly\", \"something like\", telling you the speaker is estimating a past quantity, not counting it.",[120,343,345],{"id":344},"guessing-about-finished-actions-the-compound-forms","Guessing about finished actions: the compound forms",[58,347,348,349,352,353,356,357,360],{},"Push both tenses into their ",[62,350,351],{},"compound"," forms - ",[62,354,355],{},"haber"," plus a past participle - and you can guess about ",[62,358,359],{},"completed"," actions, not just ongoing states.",[362,363,365],"h3",{"id":364},"future-perfect-a-completed-action-with-present-relevance","Future perfect: a completed action with present relevance",[58,367,368,369,372,373,376,377,380],{},"The ",[62,370,371],{},"future perfect"," (",[62,374,375],{},"habrá + participle",") guesses that something ",[62,378,379],{},"has"," happened by now.",[216,382,383,389,395,401],{},[219,384,385,388],{},[62,386,387],{},"Habrá llegado ya."," (He must have arrived by now.)",[219,390,391,394],{},[62,392,393],{},"Ya habrán terminado."," (They have probably finished already.)",[219,396,397,400],{},[62,398,399],{},"¿Habré dejado las llaves en casa?"," (I wonder if I have left the keys at home.)",[219,402,403,406],{},[62,404,405],{},"No lo veo; se habrá ido."," (I do not see him; he must have left.)",[58,408,409,410,413,414,417,418,413,421,424],{},"The action is finished and its result matters now - the classic present-relevant perfect - but layered with a guess. ",[62,411,412],{},"Habrá llegado"," is to ",[62,415,416],{},"ha llegado"," exactly what ",[62,419,420],{},"estará",[62,422,423],{},"está",": the same tense, tilted from statement to supposition.",[362,426,428],{"id":427},"conditional-perfect-a-guess-about-the-further-past","Conditional perfect: a guess about the further past",[58,430,368,431,372,434,376,437,440],{},[62,432,433],{},"conditional perfect",[62,435,436],{},"habría + participle",[62,438,439],{},"had"," happened at an earlier point in the past.",[216,442,443,449,455],{},[219,444,445,448],{},[62,446,447],{},"Habría salido antes."," (He had probably left earlier.)",[219,450,451,454],{},[62,452,453],{},"Para entonces ya habrían cenado."," (By then they had probably had dinner.)",[219,456,457,460],{},[62,458,459],{},"No estaba; habría ido al médico."," (She was not in; she had probably gone to the doctor.)",[58,462,463,464,372,468,471,472,372,476,479,480,483],{},"This is the deepest layer: a guess about a past-before-the-past. It stands to the ",[78,465,467],{"href":466},"\u002Fspanish\u002Fgrammar\u002Fpluperfect-subjunctive","pluperfect",[62,469,470],{},"había salido",", he had left) as the conditional of probability stands to the imperfect - the certain version made into a supposition. Do not confuse it with the conditional perfect of the ",[78,473,475],{"href":474},"\u002Fspanish\u002Fgrammar\u002Fsi-clauses","third conditional",[62,477,478],{},"habría salido si...",", he would have left if...); here there is no ",[62,481,482],{},"si",", and the meaning is \"probably had\", not \"would have\".",[120,485,487],{"id":486},"the-four-forms-on-one-card","The four forms on one card",[58,489,490],{},"Put all four together and the symmetry is the thing to memorise.",[128,492,493,506],{},[131,494,495],{},[134,496,497,500,503],{},[137,498,499],{},"Certain (statement)",[137,501,502],{},"Guess (supposition)",[137,504,505],{},"The guess means",[150,507,508,523,540,556],{},[134,509,510,515,520],{},[155,511,512,514],{},[62,513,423],{}," (he is)",[155,516,517,519],{},[62,518,420],{}," (future)",[155,521,522],{},"he is probably",[134,524,525,531,537],{},[155,526,527,530],{},[62,528,529],{},"estaba"," (he was)",[155,532,533,536],{},[62,534,535],{},"estaría"," (conditional)",[155,538,539],{},"he was probably",[134,541,542,547,553],{},[155,543,544,546],{},[62,545,416],{}," (he has arrived)",[155,548,549,552],{},[62,550,551],{},"habrá llegado"," (future perf.)",[155,554,555],{},"he must have arrived",[134,557,558,564,570],{},[155,559,560,563],{},[62,561,562],{},"había llegado"," (he had...)",[155,565,566,569],{},[62,567,568],{},"habría llegado"," (cond. perf.)",[155,571,572],{},"he had probably...",[58,574,575],{},"Read the right-hand column top to bottom and you have the entire probability system: present guess, past guess, completed-present guess, completed-past guess. The forms are ones you already know as tenses; all you are adding is the second job.",[120,577,579],{"id":578},"the-plain-spoken-alternative-deber-de-infinitive","The plain-spoken alternative: deber de + infinitive",[58,581,582,583,586,587,277],{},"If bending a tense to mean \"probably\" feels too slippery, Spanish gives you an explicit alternative that says ",[62,584,585],{},"must"," out loud: ",[62,588,589],{},"deber de + infinitive",[216,591,592,600,608,616],{},[219,593,594,597,598],{},[62,595,596],{},"Deben de ser las tres."," (It must be three.) = ",[62,599,228],{},[219,601,602,605,606],{},[62,603,604],{},"Debe de estar en casa."," (He must be at home.) = ",[62,607,164],{},[219,609,610,613,614],{},[62,611,612],{},"Debía de estar cansado."," (He must have been tired.) = ",[62,615,296],{},[219,617,618,621,622],{},[62,619,620],{},"Debe de haber llegado ya."," (He must have arrived by now.) = ",[62,623,387],{},[58,625,626,629,630,633,634,637,638,641,642,645,646,649,650,653,654,656,657,659],{},[62,627,628],{},"Deber de"," plus an infinitive is pure supposition - the meaning the future and conditional of probability carry, spelled out in words. There is a textbook distinction worth knowing even if speakers blur it in practice: ",[62,631,632],{},"deber de"," = supposition (",[62,635,636],{},"debe de ser tarde",", it must be late, I reckon), plain ",[62,639,640],{},"deber"," = obligation (",[62,643,644],{},"debe ser puntual",", he has a duty to be punctual). In real speech many people drop the ",[62,647,648],{},"de"," and say ",[62,651,652],{},"debe ser las tres"," for the guess; the careful, exam-safe form keeps the ",[62,655,648],{}," for a supposition. Either way, if a future-as-guess ever risks being read as a genuine future, ",[62,658,632],{}," is the unambiguous way to say the same thing.",[120,661,663],{"id":662},"worked-examples","Worked examples",[216,665,666,672,678,684,690,696,702],{},[219,667,668,671],{},[62,669,670],{},"Suena el telefono. - ¿Quién será?"," (The phone rings. - Who can that be?) - present guess.",[219,673,674,677],{},[62,675,676],{},"No está aquí. Estará en el trabajo."," (He is not here. He is probably at work.) - present guess.",[219,679,680,683],{},[62,681,682],{},"Serían las once cuando volvieron."," (It must have been about eleven when they got back.) - past guess.",[219,685,686,689],{},[62,687,688],{},"Estaba pálido; estaría enfermo."," (He was pale; he was probably ill.) - past guess.",[219,691,692,695],{},[62,693,694],{},"Llama otra vez, ya habrá salido de la reunion."," (Call again, he must be out of the meeting by now.) - completed-present guess.",[219,697,698,701],{},[62,699,700],{},"La casa estaba vacía; se habrían mudado."," (The house was empty; they had probably moved out.) - completed-past guess.",[219,703,704,707],{},[62,705,706],{},"Deben de ser las tres, tengo hambre."," (It must be three, I am hungry.) - the deber de alternative.",[120,709,711],{"id":710},"common-mistakes-english-speakers-make","Common mistakes English speakers make",[58,713,714,717,718,720,721,724],{},[62,715,716],{},"Reading será as a genuine future."," The single biggest trap. ",[62,719,64],{}," is a guess about now, not a question about later, and ",[62,722,723],{},"estará en casa"," means he is probably home, not he will be home. Let context and the question mark steer you: a future-tense verb about the present moment is almost always a supposition, not a prediction.",[58,726,727,730,731,734,735,738,739,742],{},[62,728,729],{},"Adding \"probably\" on top of the tense."," Because the tense already carries the guess, you do not also need ",[62,732,733],{},"probablemente",". ",[62,736,737],{},"Estará en casa"," already means \"he is probably at home\"; ",[62,740,741],{},"probablemente estará en casa"," is not wrong but it is doubled up. Trust the tense to do the work.",[58,744,745,748,749,752,753,755],{},[62,746,747],{},"Mixing up será and sería."," Future for a present guess, conditional for a past guess. ",[62,750,751],{},"Serán las tres"," (it is probably three now) and ",[62,754,321],{}," (it was probably three then) are one letter apart and a whole time frame apart. Get the time of the guess right and the tense follows.",[58,757,758,761,762,765,766,769,770,772],{},[62,759,760],{},"Confusing the conditional of probability with the \"would\" conditional."," ",[62,763,764],{},"Estaría cansado"," can mean \"he was probably tired\" (probability) or \"he would be tired\" (conditional proper); ",[62,767,768],{},"habría salido"," can mean \"he had probably left\" or \"he would have left\". Only context and the presence or absence of a ",[62,771,482],{}," clause tell them apart. If there is no if-then in sight, suspect probability.",[58,774,775,778,779,782],{},[62,776,777],{},"Forgetting deber de for clarity."," When a bare future or conditional would be ambiguous, the tense is not your only option. ",[62,780,781],{},"Deben de ser las tres"," says \"must be\" out loud and cannot be misread as a future. Reach for it when you want the guess to be unmistakable.",[58,784,785,786,788,789,792,793,796,797,799],{},"Stop reading ",[62,787,117],{}," and ",[62,790,791],{},"serían"," as times, start reading them as suppositions, and remember the pairing: ",[62,794,795],{},"future guesses the present, conditional guesses the past",", with the compound forms guessing about finished actions and ",[62,798,632],{}," standing by as the plain-spoken version. That is the whole of one of the most useful tricks in spoken Spanish.",[120,801,803],{"id":802},"see-also","See also",[216,805,806,812,818,824],{},[219,807,808,811],{},[78,809,810],{"href":80},"The future tense"," - the forms you already know for tomorrow, here moonlighting as the tense of guessing about today.",[219,813,814,817],{},[78,815,816],{"href":85},"The conditional"," - the would tense, which doubles as the tense of guessing about the past.",[219,819,820,823],{},[78,821,822],{"href":474},"si clauses"," - where the conditional and conditional perfect do their other job, the would and would-have of hypotheticals, not to be confused with probability.",[219,825,368,826,830],{},[78,827,829],{"href":828},"\u002Fspanish\u002Fgrammar","Spanish grammar cheatsheet"," has the future-guesses-present, conditional-guesses-past pairing on one card.",{"title":832,"searchDepth":833,"depth":833,"links":834},"",2,[835,836,837,838,843,844,845,846,847],{"id":122,"depth":833,"text":123},{"id":204,"depth":833,"text":205},{"id":266,"depth":833,"text":267},{"id":344,"depth":833,"text":345,"children":839},[840,842],{"id":364,"depth":841,"text":365},3,{"id":427,"depth":841,"text":428},{"id":486,"depth":833,"text":487},{"id":578,"depth":833,"text":579},{"id":662,"depth":833,"text":663},{"id":710,"depth":833,"text":711},{"id":802,"depth":833,"text":803},"B1-B2","Spanish uses the future tense to guess about the present and the conditional to guess about the past. ¿Qué hora será? is not a question about the future - it means I wonder what time it is, it must be about... Estará en casa means he is probably at home; serían las tres means it must have been about three; estaría cansado means he was probably tired. The compound tenses do the same for finished actions: habrá llegado ya, he must have arrived by now; habría salido antes, he had probably left earlier. This is the future and conditional used for supposition, not time - the Spanish way of saying must, probably, I bet and I wonder - with deber de + infinitive as the explicit alternative.","md",[852,855,858],{"q":853,"a":854},"How does Spanish use the future tense to express probability?","It uses the future to guess about the present. Instead of adding a word like probably or must, Spanish puts the verb into the future and lets the tense carry the guess: estará en casa means he is probably at home, not he will be at home; ¿qué hora será? means I wonder what time it is; tendrá unos treinta años means he must be about thirty. The action is happening now, but the future tense signals that you are supposing rather than stating. English reaches for must, probably, I bet or I wonder to do the same job; Spanish just conjugates. Context and often a question mark tell you it is a guess about the present and not a genuine statement about the future.",{"q":856,"a":857},"What is the difference between será and sería for probability?","They guess about different times. The future será guesses about the present: ¿qué hora será? - what time do you reckon it is now? The conditional sería guesses about the past: ¿qué hora sería? - what time do you reckon it was? So serán las tres means it is probably three now, while serían las tres means it was probably about three then. The same split runs through every verb: estará cansado, he is probably tired; estaría cansado, he was probably tired. Future for a present guess, conditional for a past guess - that is the whole system, and it mirrors the ordinary future-is-now, conditional-is-then relationship the two tenses already have.",{"q":859,"a":860},"What does 'deber de + infinitive' have to do with the future of probability?","It is the explicit, unambiguous way to say the same thing. Deber de plus an infinitive means must in the sense of a supposition: deben de ser las tres, it must be three; debe de estar en casa, he must be at home. It is exactly the meaning the future of probability carries, spelled out with words rather than smuggled into the tense. Many speakers treat deber de (supposition) and deber without de (obligation) as interchangeable in practice, but the careful distinction is deber de ser for it must be a guess and deber ser for it has a duty to be. If the future-as-guess ever feels ambiguous, deber de is the plain-spoken alternative.","higher","English marks a guess with a scatter of words - must, probably, I bet, I wonder, will be - dropped in front of an ordinary verb. Spanish has something tidier and, to an English ear, stranger: it bends a whole tense to the job. The future tense, which you first met for talking about tomorrow, doubles as the tense of guessing about now - ¿qué hora será? is not asking what time it will be but wondering what time it is. The conditional, which you met for would, doubles as the tense of guessing about then - serían las tres means it must have been about three. Push both into their compound forms and you can guess about finished actions too: habrá llegado, he must have arrived; habría salido, he had probably left. This is one of the most useful and most overlooked corners of the Spanish verb system, because it is everywhere in real speech and almost invisible in beginner courses. The trick is to stop reading será and serían as times at all and start reading them as suppositions. This page assumes you can already form the future and the conditional as tenses; here they stop telling time and start hazarding guesses.","spanish",{},"\u002Fspanish\u002Fgrammar\u002Ffuture-conditional-probability",{"title":47,"description":849},"spanish\u002Fgrammar\u002Ffuture-conditional-probability","xUqtMRrq30TBFXZCd44lpeBzMtRcwIvsypPtPaudf-w",[],{"left":4,"top":4,"width":5,"height":5,"rotate":4,"vFlip":6,"hFlip":6,"body":871},"\u003Cg fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-width=\"2\">\u003Cpath d=\"M12 15V3m9 12v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\u002F>\u003Cpath d=\"m7 10l5 5l5-5\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fg>",{"left":4,"top":4,"width":5,"height":5,"rotate":4,"vFlip":6,"hFlip":6,"body":873},"\u003Cg fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\" stroke-width=\"2\">\u003Cpath d=\"M20 20a2 2 0 0 0 2-2V8a2 2 0 0 0-2-2h-7.9a2 2 0 0 1-1.69-.9L9.6 3.9A2 2 0 0 0 7.93 3H4a2 2 0 0 0-2 2v13a2 2 0 0 0 2 2Zm-8-10v6\"\u002F>\u003Cpath d=\"m15 13l-3 3l-3-3\"\u002F>\u003C\u002Fg>"]