Subjunctive or indicative: choosing

Where the two moods compete, one question settles most cases: am I saying this is true? Yes: the indicative. No, because it is wished, doubted or only possible: the subjunctive.

Each pair differs by one word, and the mood follows the meaning. The trigger lists come first on necessity, doubt and emotion and conjunctions; this page is for the pairs.

Assert or not: the one question

The indicative puts a fact forward. The subjunctive leaves it wanted, feared, doubted or merely possible:

• Je sais qu'elle est là. - I know she is here. (I say it is true)
• Je veux qu'elle soit là. - I want her to be here. (I don't say it is)

The same question explains the flip you have met with penser: asserted, indicative; negated, the assertion is gone.

• Je pense qu'il vient. - I think he is coming.
• Je ne pense pas qu'il vienne. - I don't think he is coming.

Espérer or souhaiter?

The most-missed pair, because both feel like wanting it to happen:

Hoping leans towards the event as something you expect. Souhaiter is a verb of will, like vouloir, and wills an outcome that is not real yet.

Do not stretch espérer to its neighbours. The other wanting verbs all take the subjunctive:

• Je veux qu'il vienne. - I want him to come.
• J'aimerais qu'il vienne. - I would like him to come.

How sure? Possible and probable

Here nothing decides the mood but how confident you are. Likely is a claim; possible is not.

The line falls where the claim stops. Add peu to probable and you withdraw the claim, so the mood changes.

An adverb sidesteps the choice: Il viendra probablement. - He will probably come.