Ch 27 · Lesson 8Spanish · Chapter 27 · Lesson 8 · Grammar primer
The future and conditional of probability
¿ ? The future guesses about now ( ), the conditional about the past ( ).
The short version
Future guesses the present, conditional the past
¿ ?
Why?Hide
Where English scatters must, probably and I wonder, Spanish bends a whole tense to the job. ¿ ? asks what time it is now, not later. means he is probably at home. Shift the guess back in time and you shift to the conditional: , it was probably about three.
The four guesses on one screen
| Certain | The guess | English |
|---|---|---|
| he/she is probably | |
| he/she was probably | |
| ha | | he/she must have arrived |
| he/she had probably arrived |
The blue box is a future form, a guess about now. The dashed pink box is a conditional form, a guess about the past. The forms are the ones you know from the future and the conditional; here they stop telling time and start guessing.
- Está en casa.he/she is at home
- Estará en casa.he/she is probably at home
- Quizás esté en casa.perhaps he/she is at home
The weakest step, ., takes the subjunctive: see the subjunctive of doubt.
The future: a guess about now
Put a verb about the present into the future and the tense means "probably", "must" or "I wonder":
| Use | Spanish | English |
|---|---|---|
| the time | ¿ ? | I wonder what time it is. |
| where | . | He/She is probably at work. |
| age | . | He/She must be about thirty. |
| the doorbell | ¿ ? | Who can that be at this hour? |
| right now | . | They' probably having dinner. |
- .
- .
- .
- .
No numbers on the clocks, so every time is a guess: será la una (it must be one o'clock), serán las dos (it must be two), serán las dos y media (it must be half past two), serán las tres menos cuarto (it must be quarter to three).
The conditional: a guess about the past
Move the guess back in time and the future becomes the conditional:
serían las tres: it was probably about three (then)
serán las tres: it is probably about three (now)
Timeline from past to future, with now marked.
| Use | Spanish | English |
|---|---|---|
| the time | . | It was probably three when he/she arrived. |
| a state | . | She was probably tired. |
| age | . | He/She must have been about thirty then. |
| a crowd | . | There were probably about a hundred people. |
| no answer | ; . | He/She didn't answer; probably asleep. |
Set the two side by side:
.- It's probably about three (now)..- It was probably about three (then).
The conditional of probability loves a rough number with or : (about a hundred people).
Guess or real future?
The same form can be a guess or a real future. Ask what time the sentence is about:
| Read as | Spanish | English |
|---|---|---|
| a guess | . | He/She is probably at home now. |
| a real future | . | He/She will be at home tomorrow. |
| a guess | . | She was probably tired yesterday. |
| a real "would" | , . | With so much work, anyone would be tired. |
With no time word, a future about something you cannot see right now is usually a guess: . . (He/She isn't answering. He/She is probably asleep.)
Going further: Finished actions: habrá llegado, habría salido and the rest of the guide, when you want them. This lesson does not need them.
Practice
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One question at a time, mixed across the exercises in this lesson. Miss one and it comes back round before the end.
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